2015 Bahamas Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Western Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5).
December 24 (12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau.
Spread: Western Michigan -3.
S&P+ Projection: Western Michigan 35.9, Middle Tennessee 27.6.
Group Sites: Underdog Dynasty (MTSU), Hustle Belt (WMU).
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7-5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5).
December 24 (12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau.
Spread: Western Michigan -3.
S&P+ Projection: Western Michigan 35.9, Middle Tennessee 27.6.
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (MTSU), Hustle Belt (WMU).

 

 

The Basics
Category Middle Tennessee Western Michigan
S&P+ (Rk) 81 54
Category Middle Tennessee offense Western Michigan defense Western Michigan offense Middle Tennessee defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.77 (38) 6.14 (113) 6.31 (17) 4.98 (38)
Yards per game (Rk) 463.6 (27) 415.3 (85) 467.9 (25) 387.2 (56)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.45 (48) 2.34 (88) 2.84 (19) 1.78 (39)
Category Middle Tennessee offense Western Michigan defense Western Michigan offense Middle Tennessee defense
S&P+ (Rk) 28.2 (74) 31.1 (85) 37.1 (25) 30.4 (82)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 102.3 (68) 90.5 (99) 108.9 (35) 95.5 (83)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 122.4 (21) 94.5 (85) 122.1 (22) 81.6 (120)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 107.5 (43) 92.3 (93) 111.3 (30) 88.4 (113)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 130.5 (11) 93.8 (88) 126.1 (15) 89.9 (98)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 123.7 (15) 85.3 (116) 117.3 (26) 88.2 (105)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 117.7 (29) 99.5 (76) 112.9 (35) 84.6 (112)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 102.9 (68) 101.0 (69) 124.4 (16) 113.5 (32)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 102.4 (70) 93.1 (98) 127.2 (4) 84.9 (117)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
1. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 122 defense).
2. Passing S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 120 defense).
3. Basic Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 20 offense vs. No. 116 defense).
4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 30 offense vs. No. 120 defense).
5. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 106 defense).
Factors.

* or smallest disadvantages

Middle Tennessee

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 7 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 19 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 88 defense)

Western Michigan

  1. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
  2. Passing S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
  3. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 20 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 30 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
  5. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
Five Factors
Category Middle Tennessee offense Western Michigan defense Western Michigan offense Middle Tennessee defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.29 (48) 1.42 (118) 1.40 (10) 1.21 (39)
EFFICIENCY 44.2% (36) 41.9% (71) 43.3% (47) 41.9% (70)
FIELD POSITION 29.6 (74) 28.1 (36) 29.5 (78) 33.7 (120)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.1 (38) 4.9 (89) 5.0 (48) 3.8 (10)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Middle Tennessee -1.01 (80)
Western Michigan 4.62 (27)
ACTUAL
Middle Tennessee -3 (87)
Western Michigan 0 (65)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Middle Tennessee offense Western Michigan offense
Adj. Pace 5.9 (19) 0.1 (58)
Plays per game 80.3 (20) 74.2 (61)
Possessions per game 14.0 (20) 12.4 (103)
Std. Downs Run Rate 58.5% (70) 61.6% (52)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 20.3% (123) 27.6% (94)
% of solo tackles 79.1% (37) 74.6% (70)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Middle Tennessee defense Western Michigan defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 49.3% (126) 62.9% (38)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 29.4% (106) 34.0% (65)
Overall Havoc Rate 16.6% (50) 17.8% (34)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 7.9% (98) 8.5% (87)
DB Havoc Rate 8.6% (10) 8.9% (7)
PD to INC 37.6% (28) 39.4% (16)

When Middle Tennessee has the ball…

Standard Downs
Middle Tennessee Offense Western Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 107.5 43 92.3 93 Middle Tennessee
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.6 65 45.3 57
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.10 63 1.07 123 Middle Tennessee big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.70 98 2.87 62 Western Michigan
SD Sack Rate 1% 4 1.3% 127 Middle Tennessee big
Passing Downs
Middle Tennessee Offense Western Michigan Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 130.5 11 93.8 88 Middle Tennessee big
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.9 14 35.0 110 Middle Tennessee big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.92 29 1.73 56 Middle Tennessee
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.62 109 3.76 116
PD Sack Rate 4.3% 15 5.9% 90 Middle Tennessee big

When Western Michigan has the ball…

Standard Downs
Western Michigan Offense Middle Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 111.3 30 88.4 113 Western Michigan big
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.0 71 46.4 67
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.26 12 1.31 51 Western Michigan
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.94 60 2.56 24 Middle Tennessee
SD Sack Rate 8.1% 115 4.4% 89 Middle Tennessee
Passing Downs
Western Michigan Offense Middle Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 126.1 15 89.9 98 Western Michigan big
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.7 20 30.6 65 Western Michigan
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.84 47 1.72 58 Western Michigan
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.03 7 3.50 93 Western Michigan big
PD Sack Rate 7% 60 3.2% 123 Western Michigan big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Middle Tennessee Brent Stockstill 6’0, 200 FR 301 451 3678 27 8 66.7% 14 3.0% 7.6
Middle Tennessee Austin Grammer 6’2, 204 JR 6 9 45 1 1 66.7% 0 0.0% 5.0
Middle Tennessee Nolan Genovese 6’0, 215 SR 1 1 2 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 2.0
Western Michigan Zach Terrell 6’1, 204 JR 244 365 3229 27 8 66.8% 29 7.4% 7.8
Western Michigan Tom Flacco 6’1, 185 FR 9 11 154 1 0 81.8% 0 0.0% 14.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Middle Tennessee Shane Tucker RB 6’0, 204 JR 117 383 2 3.3 2.7 29.1%
Middle Tennessee Jordan Parker RB 6’1, 214 SR 101 468 6 4.6 4.8 35.6%
Middle Tennessee Desmond Anderson RB 5’10, 174 FR 83 378 4 4.6 2.4 43.4%
Middle Tennessee Jeremiah Bryson RB 5’8, 192 SR 46 198 3 4.3 2.7 34.8%
Western Michigan Jarvion Franklin RB 6’0, 220 SO 146 699 5 4.8 5.1 33.6%
Western Michigan Jamauri Bogan RB 5’7, 174 FR 143 836 12 5.8 7.5 35.0%
Western Michigan LeVante Bellamy WR 5’11, 185 FR 72 469 2 6.5 5.6 50.0%
Western Michigan Zach Terrell QB 6’1, 204 JR 45 261 3 5.8 3.7 51.1%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Middle Tennessee Richie James WR 5’9, 171 FR 133 100 1220 6 12.2 9.2 75.2%
Middle Tennessee Ed’Marques Batties WR 6’0, 198 SR 124 77 960 13 12.5 7.7 62.1%
Middle Tennessee Terry Pettis TE 6’5, 228 JR 43 28 593 4 21.2 13.8 65.1%
Middle Tennessee Demetrius Frazier WR 5’10, 198 JR 29 25 180 1 7.2 6.2 86.2%
Middle Tennessee Shane Tucker RB 6’0, 204 JR 25 13 126 1 9.7 5.0 52.0%
Middle Tennessee Rod Ducksworth WR 6’0, 167 JR 23 12 159 1 13.3 6.9 52.2%
Middle Tennessee Christian Collis WR 6’0, 211 SR 19 14 168 1 12.0 8.8 73.7%
Western Michigan Daniel Braverman WR 5’10, 177 JR 134 104 1270 12 12.2 9.5 77.6%
Western Michigan Corey Davis WR 6’3, 205 JR 130 83 1263 11 15.2 9.7 63.8%
Western Michigan Michael Henry WR 5’11, 186 JR 25 17 241 1 14.2 9.6 68.0%
Western Michigan Jarvion Franklin RB 6’0, 220 SO 21 16 177 0 11.1 8.4 76.2%
Western Michigan Kendrick Roberts WR 6’3, 209 SR 19 12 196 0 16.3 10.3 63.2%
Western Michigan Carrington Thompson WR 6’2, 162 JR 14 8 89 2 11.1 6.4 57.1%
Western Michigan LeVante Bellamy WR 5’11, 185 FR 5 3 66 0 22.0 13.2 60.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Middle Tennessee T.T. Barber LB 6’1, 233 SR 75.5 10.6% 11.5 4.0 1 3 0 0
Middle Tennessee Quay Watt S 6’0, 204 SR 57.5 8.1% 1.0 0.0 0 3 0 1
Middle Tennessee Cavellis Luckett LB 6’0, 241 SR 54.0 7.6% 5.0 0.5 0 1 1 0
Middle Tennessee Kevin Byard S 5’11, 215 SR 51.0 7.2% 1.0 0.0 4 5 0 0
Middle Tennessee Michael Minter CB 6’0, 184 SO 45.0 6.3% 6.0 1.0 1 8 1 0
Middle Tennessee Trey Wafford LB 5’10, 203 SR 39.5 5.6% 6.5 2.0 0 2 0 0
Middle Tennessee D.J. Sanders LB 6’0, 213 SO 32.0 4.5% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Middle Tennessee Darius Harris LB 6’2, 224 FR 31.5 4.4% 1.0 0.5 1 1 1 0
Middle Tennessee Steven Rhodes DE 6’3, 248 JR 27.0 3.8% 5.5 2.5 0 0 1 0
Middle Tennessee Jeremy Cutrer CB 6’2, 170 JR 26.5 3.7% 3.0 1.0 3 13 0 0
Middle Tennessee Chris Hale DE 6’4, 266 JR 23.0 3.2% 6.5 4.0 0 0 1 0
Middle Tennessee Xavier Walker S 6’4, 208 SR 20.5 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Middle Tennessee Jamarcus Howard CB 6’0, 182 SR 20.0 2.8% 1.5 0.0 2 3 0 0
Western Michigan Asantay Brown S 6’0, 198 SO 77.5 12.9% 3.0 1.0 2 5 2 0
Western Michigan Caleb Bailey LB 6’0, 236 SO 55.5 9.3% 12.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Western Michigan Rontavious Atkins SS 6’0, 207 SR 52.5 8.8% 2.0 0.0 0 9 0 0
Western Michigan Austin Lewis LB 6’3, 230 JR 46.0 7.7% 4.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Western Michigan Ronald Zamort CB 5’10, 174 SR 43.5 7.3% 0.0 0.0 1 16 0 0
Western Michigan Darius Phillips CB 5’10, 184 SO 40.0 6.7% 4.5 0.5 5 15 1 0
Western Michigan Robert Spillane LB 6’2, 235 SO 33.0 5.5% 5.5 1.5 0 2 1 0
Western Michigan Keion Adams DE 6’2, 261 JR 28.5 4.8% 8.5 4.5 0 0 1 0
Western Michigan Grant DePalma LB 5’9, 218 SR 26.5 4.4% 2.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Western Michigan Jarrell McKinney DE 6’4, 241 SR 25.0 4.2% 2.5 1.0 0 0 1 0
Western Michigan Cleveland Smith DL 6’1, 262 SR 20.0 3.3% 7.0 1.5 0 0 0 0
Western Michigan Jason Sylva LB 6’2, 230 JR 18.5 3.1% 1.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Western Michigan Nathan Braster DL 6’5, 258 SO 13.0 2.2% 3.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears “Fumble Returns” are getting pulled instead of “Fumble Recoveries.” My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Middle Tennessee Trevor Owens 6’2, 205 FR 31 36.2 2 7 4 35.5%
Middle Tennessee Matt Bonadies 6’1, 195 FR 26 40.6 2 4 8 46.2%
Western Michigan J. Schroeder 6’0, 203 SR 39 42.1 3 8 12 51.3%
Western Michigan Derrick Mitchell 6’2, 203 FR 1 39.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Middle Tennessee Canon Rooker 5’11, 173 SO 72 60.7 18 25.0% 1 2 1 0
Middle Tennessee Trevor Owens 6’2, 205 FR 1 46.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Western Michigan Derrick Mitchell 6’2, 203 FR 80 62.3 31 38.8% 0 0 0 0
Western Michigan J. Schroeder 6’0, 203 SR 2 51.0 0 0.0% 1 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Middle Tennessee Cody Clark 6’1, 177 JR 52-52 11-15 73.3%
Western Michigan Andrew Haldeman 5’10, 180 SR 47-50 16-20 80.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Middle Tennessee Jeremiah Bryson 5’8, 192 SR 18 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Middle Tennessee Desmond Anderson 5’10, 174 FR 10 22.1 0 0 0 (0)
Western Michigan Darius Phillips 5’10, 184 SO 32 23.4 1 0 0 (0)
Western Michigan LeVante Bellamy 5’11, 185 FR 4 21.3 0 0 2 (1)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Middle Tennessee Ed’Marques Batties 6’0, 198 SR 17 4.1 0 19 0 (0)
Middle Tennessee Jeremiah Bryson 5’8, 192 SR 2 12.0 0 3 0 (0)
Western Michigan Daniel Braverman 5’10, 177 JR 9 9.3 0 8 1 (0)
Western Michigan Darius Phillips 5’10, 184 SO 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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